BTC closed green on the day, but the bigger read is still caution, not confidence. Price failed to put in a higher local high above Tuesday’s move, and the structure still looks like a pivot high that wants to roll over. The first touch is still the fast line around $71.5K, and if weakness keeps building, the larger downside zones around $65K, $60K and even lower stay on the table. On the weekly chart, BTC is still printing a TBT bullish divergence in process, but those signals are usually early, and RSI still looks weak enough that Aaron is leaning toward more downside before any real recovery. Ethereum is telling a similar story, struggling below TBO resistance near 2376 and looking vulnerable to a pullback toward its own fast line.
Under the surface, the intermarket picture still argues for patience. ETH/BTC is stalling at resistance, BTC dominance keeps pushing higher, and stablecoin dominance still looks ready for a bullish bounce, which would usually mean more pressure on crypto. TOTALES is still in bullish consolidation inside the cloud after confirming an open long, but the broader structure remains macro bearish and Aaron is watching for a pullback before deciding whether support can actually hold. The working view is unchanged: April has been a strong relief rally, but May and June still look likely to turn much redder, so this is not the time to confuse a bounce with a full trend reversal.
On the watchlist, the strongest near-term focus is on charts that are either pushing into resistance or showing bullish reversal energy that still needs confirmation. HYPE still looks solid but likely needs a reset back to the fast line. DEXE had a huge move into resistance and looks extended. LDO is technically improving, while INJ also showed a strong move but not the cleanest continuation setup. Aaron is watching PUMP, FIL, VIRTUAL, AAVE and PENGU closely because the repeated TBO close shorts are building bullish reversal pressure, but if they do not break above nearby suppression levels by Friday, that pressure likely flips into another dump.
Chapters: 00:00 BTC still looks like a pivot high 00:51 Weekly BTC divergence, but weakness remains 02:17 ETH and ETHBTC both stall at resistance 03:43 BTC dominance, stablecoins, and TOTALES outlook 07:00 TradFi check: DXY, USDJPY, ES, Tesla, Nikkei, oil, gold, uranium 13:02 My picks: HYPE, DEXE, LDO, INJ, PUMP, FIL, VIRTUAL, AAVE, PENGU 17:43 High-risk movers: RAVE, BIANRENSHENG, M, MON, RENDER, CHZ 23:23 Your picks: DUOL, MSTR, AMC, POLYX, APT, UNI, TAO 32:26 Bigger picture outlook for April, May, and June
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